Systemic Risk, Missing Data, and the Future of Sustainable Investing

Working on the clients' wildfire-premium practicum this semester reshaped how I understand sustainable investing. It is a way of locating long-term financial risks inside much larger socio-economic systems...

By
Yifei
December 02, 2025

Working on the clients' wildfire-premium practicum this semester reshaped how I understand sustainable investing. It is a way of locating long-term financial risks inside much larger socio-economic systems. Today’s environmental crises are not discrete failures but outcomes of entrenched 'meta-rules' that structure entire systems of energy, land use, and mobility - and investors must shift from 'systems optimization' to 'systems change' if they want to meaningfully influence long-term sustainability trajectories (Schot et al., 2022).

This lens resonated strongly with my practicum work. When we mapped how climate-driven wildfire risk flows through insurance markets and ultimately S&P 500 sector valuations, we were essentially observing a system locked into reinforcing feedback loops. Premium hikes in California, for example, were not just isolated reactions to catastrophe losses. They revealed risk-pooling mechanisms accumulated over decades. Purely optimizing underwriting models or adjusting sector weights cannot address the underlying problem, because the risk is structurally produced.

At the same time, reading Giglio et al. (2023) on biodiversity risk expanded my thinking about our practicum. Biodiversity risk is harder to quantify than wildfires, but the study’s news-based biodiversity index and firm-level exposure measures demonstrate that markets do react to biodiversity-related shocks, even when disclosures remain incomplete. Market participants consistently underestimate the magnitude of these risks, especially those that are indirect and harder to capture. Reflecting on this, I realized that our practicum’s reliance on on-record modeling and available datasets might inadvertently privilege risks that are easiest to measure. Biodiversity loss, for example, rarely appears in standard datasets, yet it can amplify or create new risks. The field of sustainable investing must always go beyond what is obvious and modellable, because not all material risks present themselves in spreadsheets.

Taken together, the practicum experience reinforces my conviction that sustainable investing must integrate systems thinking with emerging risks — particularly those like biodiversity that remain underpriced. A forward-looking investment philosophy is not merely about forecasting losses but about understanding how multiple systems co-evolve, and how capital can intervene upstream to support a more resilient and equitable transition.

References

Giglio, S., Kuchler, T., Stroebel, J., & Zeng, X. (2023). Biodiversity risk. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4410107

Schot, J. W., Benedetti del Rio, R., Steinmueller, W. E., & Keesman, S. J. (2022). Transformative investment in sustainability: An investment philosophy for the Second Deep Transition. Deep Transitions. https://www.transformativeinvestment.net