The Dunning-Kruger Curve

Throughout the past month, our team has delved into the policy framework relevant to our client – an NBS investment firm based in NYC. At this stage of the project, our team has two primary responsibilities: i) conducting in-depth research per our client's request and ii) ensuring our trajectory and deliverables align with the client's goals, even as our research continues to change or affect the deliverables initially intended. Throughout this process, I've gained a newfound respect for the Dunning-Kruger effect and the importance of balancing what's possible for our team, given our time constraints and what's beneficial for our clients. 

At the start, delving through the nuances of our research, I began recognizing that there was no silver bullet for answering the questions we sought to answer. Though I have spent many years working in similar industries as our client and beside similar stakeholders as we're now studying, I realized I needed a more robust understanding of the markets and environment within which our clients were working. As a fledgling sector with an incredible amount of potential – and thus, a great deal of capital flooding toward it – there was no handbook or map for navigating the problems we were facing or many answers to the questions we hoped to answer. 

With a healthy amount of hubris, I began thinking that the research we were conducting and the data we had gathered were highly relevant and novel to the client's current and future goals. This belief – that we had covered a significant portion of what was out there to learn – is the next step of the Dunning-Kruger curve: when one enough to believe they know much more than they do, as they've yet to confront the true complexity of subject or discipline. At this point, I already began thinking of solutions and how the data we'd collected could be developed into models and aid the client. With this mentality, we headed into our midterm presentation with the client, which seconded as the first impression of our team for two of the three team members. We learned that the information provided was useful, but that we had to dive deeper. As we continue this research, our ability to see the whole board widens, and the final phase of the curve – that which is dedicated to true intuition – is upon us.

Lastly, I'd like to include how relieved I was to know how fervent our client is about learning about the policy landscape for this project. Though an investment firm at heart, understanding the policy atmosphere within the U.S. and each state/region is paramount to mitigating several of the firm's risks for myriad reasons. When reflecting on whether a policy school (SIPA) or business school (CBS) was the best decision for graduate school, these experiences help convince me I made the right choice.